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Sandown Weather - Tropical Weather Page
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Untitled Document

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Tropical Sea Temperatures

 


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 270526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.  Some development of this
system is then possible until the weekend when environmental
conditions are forecast to be less favorable for further
organization.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 27 Jun 2017 05:35:22 GMT

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270535
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Dora (EP4/EP042017)
    ...DORA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 the center of Dora was located near 18.4, -108.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Dora

  • Hurricane Dora Public Advisory Number 9
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270244 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 ...DORA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 108.3W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 108.3 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to pass over or just north of Socorro Island on Tuesday, and remain well south of the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula by early Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Dora Forecast Advisory Number 9
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017
    
    000
    WTPZ24 KNHC 270243
    TCMEP4
    
    HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017
    0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 108.3W AT 27/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
    EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
    64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
    50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 108.3W AT 27/0300Z
    AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W
    
    FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.9N 109.7W
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 113.1W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.2N 114.7W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 108.3W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    
    
    
  • Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 9
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017
    
    000
    WTPZ44 KNHC 270246
    TCDEP4
    
    Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   9
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
    900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017
    
    Dora continues to exhibit a very symmetric cloud pattern with a
    well-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye. The convective cloud tops have
    gradually warmed today, but subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
    from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 80 kt.  The
    hurricane will be moving over cooler waters as it crosses the 26
    degree Celsius isotherm very soon.  Since the shear is expected to
    remain quite low throughout the forecast period, this may result in
    a somewhat slower than typical rate of weakening during the next day
    or so.  After that time, Dora will be moving over waters colder
    than 24 degrees Celsius which should cause a faster rate of decay.
    Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours, and
    degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC intensity
    forecast is initially close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance but leans
    toward the intensity consensus at 24 h and beyond.
    
    Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt.  A large deep-layer
    ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a
    west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours.  After
    that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally
    westward in the low-level flow.  The new NHC track forecast is
    essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to
    the latest multi-model consensus.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  27/0300Z 18.4N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
     12H  27/1200Z 18.9N 109.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
     24H  28/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
     36H  28/1200Z 19.8N 113.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
     48H  29/0000Z 20.2N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
     72H  30/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  01/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    
  • Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017
    
    000
    FOPZ14 KNHC 270244
    PWSEP4
                                                                        
    HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                  
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017               
    0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4
    NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80   
    KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                            
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    20N 110W       34 30  39(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
    20N 110W       50  2   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
    20N 110W       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    ISLA SOCORRO   34 14  75(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
    ISLA SOCORRO   50  1  42(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
    ISLA SOCORRO   64  X  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
     
    ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
     
    20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  28(38)   8(46)   X(46)   X(46)
    20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
    20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
     
    20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
    
  • Hurricane Dora Graphics

    Hurricane Dora 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 02:49:20 GMT


    Hurricane Dora 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 03:22:03 GMT